When You See Tariffs, Expect a Fight...
Yes, another take on tariffs...
Look at this graph of the tariff rates of Britain, France, and the USA over the past 200 years:
Britian starts with high Tarrifs in the 1820s
They drop them as they become world masters
The USA raises them during the 19th century
As Britiain loses its empire it begins raising them
As The US becomes world empire they drop Tarrifs
What is the logic here?
Britain beat Napoleon just before the start of this graph in the early 1800s
This ended Costin Alamariu’s age of high piracy and started the process of forcing perverts to get office jobs
Britain had heavy tariffs all throughout this time before their ascendancy to world masters during the Victorian Age
This colonial period had been going on since 1492: Spain, Portugal, Holland, France, and Britain fought for dominion over the New World
Spain were the first hegemony during their Golden Age, then came the Dutch
During this time Tariffs were the tools of money war between nations
The nation state would fight to secure colonies in America and then create “trade networks” between them
They would put high tariffs on rival European states to keep them out of these networks
This was England’s colonial trade network:
This caused a lot of wars in the new world, as whoever had the best colonises could setup the best trade networks and then freeze out rival states
A huge conflict during the first Golden Age of Spain was for the “Negro Contract”, which gave you rights to sell black slaves into Spain’s huge territories
These networks and wars began to escalate up until Britain’s defeat of Napoleonic France in 1815
This was the first grand war, and it’s prize was it made England the first ever masters of the Earth
Their trade network was now so powerful it was practically the world itself
The British Empire ruled 20% of the earth during the Victorian Age, it peaked at 25% of all land on the planet during the early 1920s:
Once Britain secured this power in 1815, they began to drop all tariffs:
The entire world is now its trade network, so why act like an inwards facing nationalist with hard borders?
The Empire offered "free & open trade" to the world. No angry tariffs. Instead open and peaceful
The British Navy would have the monopoly on violence and would secure the Seas from pirates
At the exact same time, the Brits abolished slavery in their network and began promoting universal suffrage
Nasty nationalism is not a good look for a lofty Empire. An Empire must be moral to win the hearts and minds of the world
Interestingly, it is here you find the origin of “Woke” values… but this may unsettle our cast of midwit pundits
But what was in all these reforms for the Brits?
They lose native nationalist advantage in industry?
They have to protect the Seas and be the buzzkill who asks people to stop selling slaves?
All these gifts are worth it for the Empire's currency to become the world standard
When everyone on earth is hungry to buy up as many pounds as possible, Britain becomes effortlessly wealthy.
An example of Britain’s financial dominance was when the Bank of England was used to pay reparations and secure relations after the Franco-Prussia war of 1870 (which Nietzsche fought in, and which saw the creation of Germany as a rising state)
Britain lived like globetrotters for over a century. But all things end.
They suddenly began to REVERSE this open world policy once they began losing power in the 1930s:
When Germany, Russia, and America began to sense that Britain was weak and could not enforce it rule like it once did, they began to bicker about who would be the next World Hegemon
Britain began to increase tariffs to initiate threats against these upstarts, but to no avail…
The entire world soon sunk into the largest war in history. The world reshuffled
Germany was defeated, Russia was isolated, and Britain lost the status of World Hegemon to the United States of America
You can check out this free episode on the breakdown of World Orders, as we may be living through one…
During Britain’s Imperial era, America had enormous tariffs
America was an inward focused rising nation
America used to fund their entire government on these tariffs, they didn't even need income taxes in the Victorian Age.
As America took over the world in 1945 they dropped all tariffs
At this moment America stopped being a insular nation and began being a world dominating Empire. Check our graph once again:
What are Trump’s tariffs? They look like the end of the American Empire.
They look like 1930s Britain throwing out threats as they lose the prestige they had at the peak of their power
They look like the rumblings of new forces after the long hegemonic peace loses its grip over the world.
The last time the World Hegemon began to reverse this and impose tariffs again, it marked the end of that Empire and a series of gigantic wars to decide who would be the next world leader
History is not always the same and could go much differently, but these are the patterns.
Since, the British empire was the first empire in history to establish a "Global World Trade System" - everything about our reality is shaped by their institutions:
The open trade model the US copied
The Federal Reverse System (modelled on the Bank of England)
The use of corporations and tax havens by the elite
Global institutions like the UN
Subscribe for $5 a month to learn about the British Empire:
If this thesis is correct (and it could be wrong). We must try to predict who will be the next rising power?
Will it be China?
They have an enormously powerful manufacturing base. They have become the dominate trade partners across the world and built the best trade network.
The great strength of the US was its wealthy consumer base. Everyone wanted to trade well with America so they could offer products to the American people.
But, the Chinese consumer base has become so large that its now nearly as good of a market to sell to as the USA once was. And China is on a steady uptrend.
Recent apps like TikTok and Deepseek seem to prove that China have the technological capacity to be competitive with the US
But the real question is do they have the military power and outwards intensity to enforce the standard use of the Yuan across the world?
Could China really rule the Seas and trade routes?
Americans, like the British, are blond beasts who relish at the thought of adventuring over to your country and bombing you
This is what made them great enforcers of the Seas
The Chinese character is extremely insular and cautious
Infact, many indications by the Chinese have been more towards the idea of creating “global systems” like the UN to lead the world, not the nation of China stepping into the role of violent enforcers.
Perhaps the symbolic war that will decide this is the two Anglo-Chinese drug wars: Opium and Fentynal.
During the Victorian age the Anglos set up shop in Hong Kong and used it to funnel a million tonnes of Opium into mainland China. This was led by a Scotsman called Jardine.
The Chinese tried to resist this. Nationalism is all about the ability to close your borders and stop goods or charge tariffs on merchants trying to plunder your population.
The Scotsman Jardine sailed home to rally the Brits to war in classic colonial style
Don’t argue with tariffs, beat them into submission and force them to allow you to sell your drugs in their country and make their population addicts.
Jardine was successful, and the British Army sailed out to crush the Chinese. They had to accept Opium without resistance
This drew the professionals. The Jewish Sassoons moved in and scaled the operation into an enormous trade.
This crippled and humiliated China for 100 years.
The Chinese are now getting payback on the new Anglo empire of America by using Canada and Mexico to funnel the infamous opioid Fentanyl into the USA
There’s even some Jewish middlemen like the Sackler’s making bank off these drug wars.
Is this Fentanyl revenge proof that China is developing imperial instincts? Have the learned that they need to grow some teeth to put their rivals down?
The Chinese are also extremely aggressive in Africa in their attempts to turn locals away from the West and towards Chinese trading systems.
Is this all a blunder? Is this focus on the Chicoms dumb? Are the Israelis the secret rising power? Or could it be India?
Perhaps the new focus should be on globalist tech networks like Thiel’s Palantir and e/acc connections replacing the old Leftwing USAID patronage network from the 20th century.
Perhaps through these new tech networks will allow America to surprise everyone and start a new Golden Age? America grew out of Britain, so now the global tech network grows out of America?
Is this just cope to avoid facing the fact that America is in real decline? Is America becoming insular and foregoing its role as financial Hegemon good for the nation?
Lastly, how is this relevant to you?
I don’t mean this to be aimless historical garble, these things DO have real consequences in your life. If Trump’s tariffs end the income tax you will have a blast. If they cause a war then you better start preparing.
look at crucial practical actions you could have taken if you knew this:
Imagine an Ecom bro dropshipping from China who saw tariffs coming, you could have moved your manufacturing to the US
Europeans could have setup a US LLC to process online business with American consumers instead of getting brutalised by 20% tariffs against the EU
If you have the wealth to invest real money, you could predict this instability of the world order and put your money in gold, which is a stable asset when financial networks begin to breakdown. Gold has doubled in value over the last 12 months.
You could step back from the hype slop around Trump and see more clearly the logic beneath his moves, and spend your time getting ahead of them. All of this may indicate a great political change on the horizon in Europe, why not get ahead of that!
The deeper your context of understanding, the higher conviction you can approach these decisions
Brilliant, now is the time to cut off all trade with China.
Looks like we’re moving into a multipolar world & the end of global trade. Peter Zeihan has some interesting takes, bullish on America.